How to frame a question..
Sunday, March 23rd, 2008From time to time I get various kinds of surveys in the post asking me to provide information as to my views on various issues. I tend not to answer most of them, and here is why.
Last year I wrote about the Illusion of Compromise. Marketers always seem to ask the right question to get the answer they want. This can be done by setting the mindset from the outset.
For example, if an opinion pollster were to ask you the question “Would you like the government to raise your taxes?”, there would be two obvious answers: Yes or No. (We’ll ignore the “I don’t know” for this purpose.) Most people will say “no” (at least as long as they feel the question would raise their own tax burden.)
On the basis of this question, we might get the following outcome:
keep raise
| |
+-a-------+
80 20
(where a is the average outcome)
This would suggest that most people were in favour of keeping taxes at the current level. In reality, if we asked the question in a more open way “What would you like the government to do about taxes?” we might see a very different answer:
lower keep raise | | | +---b-----+---------+ 70 10 20 (where b is the average outcome)
Now it becomes clear that whilst 20% of people might want higher taxes, the 80% that do not, are not necessarily of the view that they should stay the same–Some of them want lower taxes. In the first case, a compromise outcome may be a small increase in taxes, whilst in the latter it would be a moderate decrease.
As such, always be weary of opinion polls or surveys that come through in the post asking for your opinion on such matters.


